Monday, January 11, 2010

First Five Days

There is an old adage on Wall Street that states "so goes the week, so goes the month, so goes the year" referring to January. Stock Traders Almanac identified that of the past 36 years, when the first 5 trading days of January were positive, the year was positive 31 of those years for an 86.1% accuracy ratio. The first five days of 2010 were up a net 2.7% so this is encouraging that the current bull run should continue.

However, in midterm election years the First Five Days predictor has only a 60% accuracy ratio. Something to keep in mind.

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