Sunday, October 10, 2010

2Q Highlights

Some highlights from our quarterly newsletter.

On gold:
 "We would not advocate buying gold here.  It is a bit extended and as we stated above, getting a lot of media attention.  Those two things tend to produce rather volatile moves.  If gold does pull back as we expect it will, and you find it suited for your portfolio, that is when you should be looking at adding some to your portfolio."
 On fixed income:
"Fixed income right now is an interesting animal.  Interest rates are so low you would think that bonds can’t go any higher (bonds have an inverse relationship between price and yield:  when prices rise, yields, or rates, go down and vice verca), but they are continuing to go up.  There are a couple factors going on, two of which are 1) increased uncertainty and nervousness about the economy and 2) the government has said they are going to continue to buy bonds (which puts money into the economy).  Do we think there is a bubble in bonds – not yet.  If for nothing more than the fact that everyone keeps asking if there is a bubble in bonds.  Remember real estate a few years ago?  No one believed it was a bubble; it was the ‘new normal.’  When everyone is saying that ultra-low rates are the new normal and they will stay that way forever, that’s when I will think it is a bubble.  But not yet."
On equities:
"According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the 4th quarter of a mid-term election year and the 1st quarter of the following year have historically been quite strong.  (Of course this should be taken with a grain of salt since the month of September was the opposite of what it has been historically.)  Nevertheless, after what may be a small digestion of gains in early October, we are looking for additional upside in the November through March time frame."

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